A reactive response. Most leaders wait until the church has plateaued or is in decline before they seek renewal. This is the crisis or reactive mode. But people do not lead and respond well in a crisis context for several reasons. One is that the leaders are discredited. They are the very ones who led the organization into its state of decline, so they are not considered competent as leaders or worthy of trust.

People will also respond poorly because of lack of resources. Declining ministries are like sinking ships. Some people are quick to abandon them and take their money with them. There will also be poor esprit de corps. People are down emotionally, which drains them of the energy needed to be involved in renewal.

Knowing where we are. At this point two important questions for growing churches are, How can we know where our church is on the first curve, and When it is time to start the second curve? The answer to both questions is that you cannot know for sure. However, the following hints may prove helpful. First, it is always safe to assume that you are close to a plateau. If you are not close, you can be sure that one is lurking somewhere off in the distance. Handy points out candidly that an organization needs a new direction every two to three years. This is because not only is there more change today, but also it happens in a shorter amount of time.

It may be helpful to ask an outsider (another pastor or consultant) for his evaluation of where the church is, because he will be more objective than people within the ministry. Younger people in the church and younger leaders will often be more aware of where the church is than older members. The older and established leaders may hold assumptions, views, or paradigms that blind them to the real situation. This is why I along with others advise older leaders and retiring pastors not to stay in the church. It is imperative that those who cannot embrace the new curve step aside and, usually, leave the church. This may seem harsh, but the church as a whole is more important than a handful of former leaders. These older leaders could move to other churches where they would be able to serve with less influence as lay leaders or as ministers in small group communities.

Some second-curve issues. Not only is it difficult to convince people in a growing church of the need to start a second curve, but it is also difficult to accomplish the new direction. For a time, various currents will be pulling in different directions. The old and new curves will coexist, causing much confusion. Conflict will surface between leaders and their followers invested in the first curve and those invested in the second curve. In addition, as the second curve starts up, it may wane before it takes over. The result will be even more criticism of the leaders of change, making it easy for them to lose heart, give up on the new curve, and return to the old or resign. The answer for leaders of change is to exercise great patience with the process. Do not be too quick to decide it’s not working.

Some second-curve events. How do growing churches launch new S-curves? What are some second-curve events? One is a church relocation. Lakepointe Baptist Church was a growing Southern Baptist church located in Rowlett, Texas (a suburb of Dallas), with an average of two to three thousand attenders. They relocated to a larger facility that is located four or five miles away, facing a four-lane interstate highway, and attendance has jumped to around seven thousand.

Another way to initiate a second curve is to implement some or all of the concepts in this book—discovering your core values; developing a mission, a vision, and a strategy; and so forth. For those who have already discovered and developed these concepts, begin a second curve by revisiting and updating or rethinking them.

Other second-curve events are the addition of a more contemporary worship service, transitioning the traditional church service to a contemporary service, adding a service to attract and win seekers, redesigning the traditional Christian education program, launching a vibrant small group ministry, and challenging all the people to go through a process of discovering their divine design and then investing their lives in some aspect of church ministry.

Warning. Every church is unique. Consequently, what works for one church may not work for another. Relocation worked well for Lakepointe—a healthy church. It could prove disastrous for you. The same is true for transitioning from a traditional to a more contemporary format, adding a service, and so on.

Some events result in deeper changes than others. A relocation or transition in style may bring changes only at the church’s edges. This depends on the church and its particular culture, needs, and problems. Usually the kinds of events that launch new S-curves result in substantial changes at the organization’s heart and not just around its edges. Often they involve a change in paradigm. While a church relocation or transition from one style to another is optional, discovering core values and developing a mission, vision, and strategy are not. When an entire church concurs and decides to pursue these, the result, most likely, will be a new S-curve.

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CHURCH REVITALIZATION

The third context for starting a new sigmoid curve is the revitalization of plateaued or dying churches. The hope is that it is not too late for the church to be revived. A plateaued church can move in a new direction, starting the new S-curve while on the plateau. New problems may arise, however. When enough new people are coming into the ministry to offset those who are exiting, the leaders may find themselves dealing with some of the same challenges as those of growing churches.

If a church waits until it is dying to make changes, it finds itself in a reactive not a proactive mode. At this point it may be too late to start a new sigmoid curve. The church may have used up most of its resources in trying to keep the sinking ship afloat. Some people are willing to invest in a ship that is listing badly, but many head for the lifeboats. Those who decide to stay with the ship find themselves constantly wrestling with discouragement. As difficult as church planting and starting a new curve in a growing church are, revitalization of a declining ministry is more difficult and less likely to succeed. However, if a plateaued church is to survive, it must start a new S-curve as soon as possible and trust God to chart a new course.